Football Scheduling

Wofford football won their first game over the weekend, ending a 16-game losing streak. The true story of the losing streak reflects much more on the team’s schedule than the team’s skill.  In the combined computer rating, Wofford is 80^th of 130 FCS teams this week (link); they were only a dozen places lower before the win.  The computers see Wofford as a low average or slightly below average team.  However, the Terriers have faced an extremely difficult schedule, rated as 10^th hardest in the country by Massey computer rankings.

Massey rates the Terriers 67^th of 130 teams this year. Because of the tough schedule, the computers favored the Terriers in only 2 games this season.  Below are the Terrier’s opponents for 2022 (predictions from Massey):

The same was true last year.  Wofford was 1-10 on the season but was the 78^th best team in the country according to Massey.  They were not favored to win any of their games because of the uniformly tough schedule.

The longest losing streak in Wofford history was in large part the result of slightly below average teams facing a uniformly brutal schedule.

What really stands out in Wofford’s schedule is the lack of an easily winnable game in the last two seasons for Wofford.  These easier wins can come as a result of deliberate scheduling.  There are a number of ways to “schedule a win.”  While games scheduled against non-scholarship teams and teams transitioning to the FCS scholarship limits represent a clear advantage in talent, games against lower division opponents represent a near certain win on the schedule regardless of the quality of the team.  (Only 3 lower division opponents won such games in 2021, only 2 in 2020.)  This season, every team in the SoCon except Wofford and Samford hosted a game against a team below FCS, a non-scholarship squad, or a team new to FCS:

• Mercer v Morehead State, 63-13 [99% chance for Mercer to win according to Massey]
• Chattanooga v Northern Alabama, 41-14 [90% chance to win]
• Furman v North Greenville, 52-0 [95% chance to win]
• Western Carolina v Presbyterian, 77-21 [95% chance to win]
• Citadel v Virginia Lynchburg (Nov 12) [100% chance to win]
• ETSU v Mars Hill, 44-7 [95% chance to win]
• VMI v Cornell, 22-28. [60% chance to win]

With the exception of VMI, the SoCon teams won each of these games handily.  VMI also scheduled Bucknell, an 0-6 Patriot league team, where the Keydets had a predicted 87% chance to win.  Samford faced the second most difficult non-conference schedule, hosting Kennesaw and visiting Georgia and Tennessee Tech.  The Tennessee Tech game was the Bulldog’s easiest of the season, representing a 77% chance of a Samford victory.  Wofford has no game on the schedule where they would be so heavily favored.

A. Lower Division Games

Lower division games had previously been an essential part of the Terrier schedules.  In the past, Wofford has played at least one of these games in 10 of the previous 21 seasons:

• Johnson C. Smith (Div. 2: 2016, 2004)
• North Greenville (Div. 2: 2014)
• Virginia Wise (NAIA: 2011, Div. 2: 2014)
• Lincoln U. (Div. 2: 2008)
• Union (KY) (NAIA: 2010)
• Georgetown (KY) (NAIA: 2007, 2005)
• Catawba (Div. 2: 2003)
• Newberry (Div. 2: 2002)

These games are purchased home games with a sub $100,000 payout to the Division 2 or NAIA team.  The Terriers have never lost one of these games, which had an average final score of 48-10.  In addition, playing a team in the lower divisions gives the Terriers an additional home game to offset a difficult road game against a FBS opponent, which Wofford had played every year except for the 2004 season and the spring 2020-21 season.  A single scheduled game against a lower division team over the last two years would have cut off the Terriers losing streak:

• Johnson C. Smith: Wofford would have a predicted 100% chance of victory according to Massey;
• North Greenville: 82% chance of victory;
• Virginia Wise: 99% chance of victory;
• Lincoln U.: 100% chance of victory;
• Union (KY): 100% chance of victory;
• Georgetown (KY): 97% chance of victory;
• Catawba: 99% chance of victory;
• Newberry: 89% chance of victory;
• Allen U.: 100% chance of victory;
• Benedict: 94% chance of victory;
• Erskine: 100% chance of victory;
• Lenoir Rhyne: 70% chance of victory;
• Limestone: 93% chance of victory;
• Mars Hill: 91% chance of victory;
• Morehouse: 100% chance of victory;
• UNC Pembroke: 97% chance of victory;
• Wingate: 90% chance of victory;
• Winston-Salem St: 100% chance of victory.

Note: Anderson University begins football in 2024 with head coach Bobby Lamb.

B. Non-Scholarship Schools

Wofford is also missing its opportunity to play non-scholarship and reduced scholarship FCS teams.  Since joining the Southern Conference in 1997, Wofford has never scheduled a game with any of the non-scholarship schools of the Pioneer League or the Ivy League.   (The quality of football played in the Ivy league is equivalent to other leagues with full scholarships.  In the last three seasons, the Ivy League as whole has gone 51-21 against non-conference competition from mostly the Patriot, Pioneer, and NEC.)  Nor have the Terriers ever played a team from the Northeast Conference (NEC), which only allows limited scholarships — 40-scholarships rather than the full 63-scholarship equivalency limit for FCS football.  The stigma of playing NEC and Pioneer teams has been reduced since the NEC received an auto-bid to the FCS playoffs with the expansion to 20 teams in in 2010 and Pioneer was given an auto-bid with the expansion to 24 teams in 2013.

These games against reduced scholarship schools are purchased home games with a $100,000-$150,000 payout to non-scholarship team.  They could also be 2 for 1 games with a pair of home games traded for one away trip.  Wofford played a number of the Pioneer teams prior to joining the Southern Conference.  The Terriers split a series with University of Dayton of the Patriot League during their Division 1 transition in 1995-96.  Wofford has played Presbyterian College (2018, 2017, 2013, 2011) eighty-five times in history and have not lost to Presbyterian in seven games since 1994.  Presbyterian dropped scholarships for football in 2021 and joined the Pioneer and the teams have not met since.  Wofford routinely played Davidson College 51 times but only three times since Davidson dropped football scholarships.  The series with Davidson was not renewed after Davidson temporarily lowered its football to Division 3, following a 51-0 Wofford victory in 1989.  The Terriers also played current Pioneer member Stetson nine times between 1938 and 1956.  Finally, Wofford lost to current Pioneer member Morehead State University in 1997 in Eagle’s last year of granting football scholarships.  (Wofford’s men’s basketball team has also played Butler and Drake in recent years, although their basketball teams are full scholarship.)

A game against a Pioneer League team, like Presbyterian, Stetson, Morehead State, or Davidson during the last two seasons would have probably ended the Terriers losing streak, as well.  Presbyterian (2-9 in 2021, 1-6 in 2022) does not have a win over an FCS team in the last two years.  Stetson’s only FCS wins in the last 2 years are against Presbyterian in 2021 and Morehead State in 2022.  This season, Morehead State lost to Mercer by 50 points and its only FCS win was over Presbyterian.  While Davidson was a playoff team in 2021, they lost to VMI by 21 points and to Kennesaw State by 27.   Scheduling these games would also likely create a Terriers victory:

• Presbyterian (Pioneer): 98% chance of a Wofford victory at home (96% on the road)
• Stetson (Pioneer): 94% chance of victory (90% on the road)
• Morehead State (Pioneer): 93% chance of victory (88% on the road)
• Davidson (Pioneer): 78% chance of victory (70% on the road)
• Butler (Pioneer): 95% chance of victory (90% on the road)
• Drake (Pioneer): 97% chance of victory (93% on the road)
• Central Connecticut (NEC): 88% chance of victory
• Duquesne (NEC): 75% chance of victory
• LIU (NEC): 92% chance of victory
• Merrimack (NEC transitioning to Div 1): 69% chance of victory
• Sacred Heart (NEC): 74% chance of victory
• St. Francis(PA) (NEC): 50% chance of victory
• Stonehill (NEC transition to Div 1): 86% chance of victory
• Wagner (NEC): 95% chance of victory

C.  One-sided Series

Another way to schedule a potential win is to book an opponent who does not have a winning tradition.  In the past, Wofford often scheduled Charleston Southern (1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010), who have not beaten theTerriers in 14 games.  Wofford also faced Gardner Webb (2004, 2005, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019), and the Terriers are 10-2 against the Bulldogs since 1994.  Wofford won both games of a home and home series with Tennessee Tech in 2015-16 and has never lost to the Golden Eagles.  These games are usually scheduled as home and home series.

The teams of the Southern Conference have dominated these three opponents as well.  With the exception of the Jimmy Chadwell years (where 4 wins over the SoCon were vacated), Charleston Southern is 2-26 against members of the Southern Conference since joining the FCS.  Meanwhile, Gardner Webb is 3-10 against members of the SoCon since 2015 and 10-26 since 2004.  Tennessee Tech is only 2-9 against the SoCon since 2004.  After 3-4 wins each in 2021, Gardner Webb is 2-5 this season, while Charleston Southern and Tennessee Tech are 1-5.  While a game scheduled against one of these teams would have probably ended the Terriers losing streak, the results of these  scheduled games would be a little harder to predict over the course of several years.  For example, this year according to Massey:

• Charleston Southern: 62% chance of Wofford home win; 51% chance of away win.
• Gardner-Webb: Wofford would be the underdog this season away or home.
• Tennessee Tech: 67% chance of Wofford home win; 56% chance of away win.

D. Transitioning teams

Over the last few years, several teams are joining the FCS from lower divisions.  It takes time for team to build their scholarships and the quality of their recruiting, so schools usually (but not always) struggle for their first few years.  This year, Wofford would have been favored over most of these transitioning teams:

E. Predicting the Future

Most football schedules in the Southern Conference are created 2-5 years ahead.  This can create a problem as the fortunes of a program change over time.  For Wofford, the Elon and Kennesaw State series were scheduled after the 2018 playoff games against those teams.  The Virginia Tech contract was signed in 2019 and the UNC contract in 2018.  The other eight games each season are against SoCon opponents.

Wofford’s schedules have been particularly difficult over the last 3 years (including the originally announced 2020 fall schedule).  These schedules were built for the back-to-back SoCon Champs in 2019 and are particularly ill suited for the current team.  This season, four of ten FCS Wofford opponents were ranked in the preseason polls and 2 additional teams have been ranked during the season.  The schedules for 2021 and 2022 were particularly loaded with quality non-conference opponents.  Ironically, the schedule did not play out exactly as intended, because Elon is having one of their best years and Kennesaw one of their worst.  While Wofford enjoyed historic success over Elon winning 12 of 14 games since entering the Southern Conference, this year’s Phoenix is on the rise reaching as high as 14^th in the Stats FCS poll.  While down this year after a preseason ranking of 6^th in the Coaches poll, Kennesaw state has averaged 11.25 wins and a number 9 national ranking over the last four full seasons.

These tough non-conference schedules for Wofford are going to continue into the future.  In 2023, Wofford travels to Clemson (currently ranked #6 in FBS) and William and Mary (#12/13, 5-1).  In 2024, Wofford hosts William & Mary and travels to Richmond (#19/21, 4-2) and South Carolina.  The contract with William & Mary was signed on May 17, 2021, right after the end of the 2002-21 spring season, while the Richmond contract was announced soon after.  The Clemson and South Carolina games are part of long-term series.

The Conference slate has also become tougher.  While in the past, the Terriers could count on an easy win or two out of the Southern Conference, the league has become more balanced over the last 3 years.  Since 2019, every other SoCon team except the Citadel has enjoyed at least one non losing season in the league.  Over the last seven seasons, every team except Mercer and WCU has shared at least one conference title.  Teams like Mercer (1-7 against Wofford in the Southern Conference), the Citadel (6-20), ETSU (3-9), and Western Carolina (5-19) have improved in recent years are no longer guaranteed wins for any team.

F. The Schedule Matters

Facing a lengthy losing streak, it becomes even more critical to have more winnable games to build a team’s confidence and visit some success.  A team’s opponents matter during any streak: Just ask Presbyterian.  The Blue Hose’s losing streak against FCS teams has reached 15 games and they have lost 26 of their last 27 games against scholarship FCS teams.  Their wins against lower scholarship and lower division teams have masked those streaks and padded their records.  Those wins have done little to help their computer rankings.  They have been last in the Massey computer rankings in 2022 and 2021 and in the bottom ten in 2020 and 2019.

A team’s schedule means a great deal when it comes to wins.  Presbyterian is a bad team facing an easy schedule.  In 2021, Presbyterian had the 128^th team out of 128 FCS school while facing the 128^th strongest schedule.  Wofford was ranked 78^th by the Massey Computers, facing the 36^th hardest schedule.  Playing Presbyterian’s schedule in 2021, the computer predicts that Wofford would have finished 9-2, would have been favored in 10 of Presbyterian’s 11 games, and would have been in strong contention to win the Pioneer league and its playoff berth.  In 2022, Presbyterian has the 130^th best team out of 130 FCS teams facing the 125^th strongest schedule.  With Presbyterian’s schedule in 2022, Massey predicts that Wofford would average 8.4 wins and would have been the overwhelming favorite to make the playoffs winning the Pioneer.

Wagner College has lost 26 straight games and was the only FCS team with a longer losing streak than Wofford.  Wagner is a bad team facing a bad to average schedule.  Their schedule was the 100^th toughest in 2021 and the 58^th toughest this year according to Massey.  If they played Wofford this year, the computers only give the Seahawks a 5% chance of victory.  However, they have a fair chance of winning one of their remaining games against Northeast Conference opponents LIU (0-5), Central Connecticut (0-6), Stonehill (transitioning), or Duquesne (1-5).  According to Massey, Wagner finished 126 of 128 in 2021 (ahead of Stetson and Presbyterian) and 128 of 130 in 2022 (ahead of Drake and Presbyterian).

On the other hand, if Wofford faced Wagner’s schedule in 2021, it is far more likely they would have finished the season with a winning record instead of finishing 1-10 against a SocCon schedule.  Wofford would have been favored in 8 of Wagner’s games and would have finished with a predicted 6.4 wins.  Finishing 2021 with a 9-2 record and a play-off bid in the NEC would have required less of an upset than beating the Citadel (who the Terriers took to overtime losing on a failed 2-point conversion).

Against Wagner’s 2022 schedule the Terriers could have achieved similar results.  They are predicted by the computers to finish with 5.9 wins and would be favored in 7 games, with the 8^th a tossup.  In fact, only the two games against FBS teams seem like sure losses.  Again, Wofford would have been even money to win the NEC championship and a playoff berth.

This is not a suggestion that Wofford drop football scholarships and join the Northeastern Conference or the Pioneer Football League.  However, the effects of schedules on team records cannot be underestimated.  Throughout Terrier’s losing streak, they were far from the worst team in the FCS.  In reality, Wofford was closer to an average team in the subdivision.  However, they were playing a schedule which had been created for a playoff level team, which contained no safety valves to ensure at least one win in the season.  If you are an average team facing a brutal schedule, a long losing streak can result.  Your record is measured against who you play.

This leads to the question as to why Wofford created such a tough schedule over the last several years.  That will be addressed in Part 2.

-James Kilbourne